人们常说，时尚是一种轮回，而商业又何尝不是？
核心导读：
1.社区团购真的如看上去那么好吗？
2.相较其他垂直电商和线下，社区团购有哪些优势和劣势？
3.社区团购的机会点在哪里？
似乎每当一个时代的流量红利期终结，人们就会把目光放到社区这个天然聚集人群的场景。
社区团购本不是一个新鲜事物，尽管很大一部分人认为，是拼多多带动了社区团购的突然爆发，但从团购的形式上来讲，区别于拼多多中“拼单”的动作，当下大部分的社区团购则更类似聚划算的形式，即买家在既定优惠价下直接发生购买行为，而限定条件是购买者以社区为单位划分，有明确的地域属性。
当下社区团购主要通过微信群或小程序建立销售渠道，批量发货，线下自提。而在线下作为商品中转的节点分为两种形式，其一，是社区宝妈等具有社交属性的个体，其二，是社区周边商铺等天然线下场景。
以家庭消费中最为高频的生鲜品为典型，社区团购之所以能够吸引大量创业者和资本进入，其核心逻辑在于，相较于传统渠道，从流量获取、商品损耗、物流、人力等方面大大降低了履约成本，同时可复制性极强。
一时间，“千团大战”仿佛一触即发，但这门生意真如看上去那么好吗？未必。
社区团购有哪些硬伤？
如果脱离了社区这个概念，那么这种商业模式和已有的团购电商并没有任何区别。除社区天然的流量红利之外，履约成本的降低主要通过预售制实现，因此业内也有声音认为，社区团购是基于渠道的微创新。
而团购模式本身的持续性就值得质疑。天图资本管理合伙人冯卫东认为，团购只是一种手段，最终还是要回到平台的商品类别、渠道等属性上来。“千团大战没有生存者。即便拼多多，最后也会回到他到底卖什么的问题上来，是一家综合电商还是垂直品类电商，而不会说他是一家拼团的电商”，他近日在一场行业活动中表达了上述观点。
以团购市场当年最大的赢家美团为例，《零售老板内参》（微信ID：lslb168）发现，其近期披露的2018年第三季度财报显示，报告期内191亿元营收中，贡献突出的核心业务分别是占比近六成的美团外卖，以及到店、酒店及旅游收入。尽管以团购起家，但在当下的业务版图中，外卖、酒旅等核心版块都已经难觅团购模式的踪迹。
（美团2018年三季度财报）
如果说，团购本身能够作为一个业务模块，却不足以撑起一个平台体系，那么我们要探讨的问题是，依托团购模式在社区这个场景下的电商平台，究竟有多少竞争力，能否形成壁垒？
社区团购当下集中于生鲜品类和家庭日用消费品，目前也有多家平台在对sku进行扩充。对C端主打通过低价优质吸引消费者，并借由社区纽带下的熟人推荐建立信任关系促进高频消费，一般生鲜品类多为产地直发、次日送达，以此来保证品质，同时减少中间环节损耗和成本。
那么，首先，社区团购从品类而言是否有更多扩展机会？
生鲜品类是社区团购平台的好搭档，这我们不再赘述，重点来说说在其他品类的拓展难度。在垂直电商发展较为成熟的当下，消费渠道获取极为简单，电商造节活动不断，商家促销期间进行批量囤货已经形成用户习惯。而除生鲜外，家居日用品等一般消费品的消费频次要低很多，尽管不是没有需求，只是消费频次低下来之后从团购至关重要的平台量级上而言并无明显优势。
许多主推宝妈团长模式的社交团购平台会去试水美妆品类，却也不见得合适。社区团购有一个特点那就是团长主动推荐，通常每个团长对应都是几百个潜在用户。而美妆类社交电商的特点则是KOL带头，加之大批量的用户自发种草，这也是因为美妆品类具有很强的个人性，需要大批量的用户客观意见带动社交属性，而这恰巧是一对多的社区团购所缺少的。
其次，社区团购的低价优质有竞争力吗？
在生鲜等传统供应链流程长，产品难以标准化的品类中，类似社区团购的预售制和产地直发能够带来价格和质量上的直观优势，但在标准化程度较高的普通消费品领域，社区团购依靠供应链缩短和批量采买的优势并不见得比其他电商平台大。
再次，从社交属性来看，社区团购有竞争力吗？
社区团购的确抓住了两个最具社交属性的群体——宝妈和便利店店长。这两个群体时间相对自由，便利店出于生意需要会主动拉近和居民之间的关系，基本可以覆盖整个小区范围。宝妈则因为群体间有共性行为（遛娃，社区周边托儿所等）而易于形成社交关系，且购买能力和意愿都很强烈。但这种建立在陌生人日常行为上的社交关系相对来说较为薄弱，区别于社交电商KOL带货的形式，在商品属性之外，团长的说服力则并不强，面对个性化更强、单价更高的商品则缺乏足够的推广力度。
和闲鱼等基于地理位置交易，线下验货，线上交付货款的电商平台不同，由于社区团购先付款后拿货，则使得团购者和团长之间的信任体系较为薄弱，目前大部分玩家都是通过秒赔方式杜绝差评，从而避免团购体系内大规模的信任危机。
最后，从C端便利性而言，社区团购又如何？
就物流环节来说，由于团购电商一般是预售制，商品基本是次日达或者多日达，时效性介于社区便利店和电商平台之间。但由于增添了消费者线下自提的环节，从便利性而言反而要低于直买直送的电商平台，但依然优于大型商超和市场。
基于以上，我们不难发现，社区团购尽管有消费场景和需求，但从各个角度来看都未必是最优解，尤其在消费品渠道极其丰富的当下。
然而，社区团购模式得到众多资本青睐，必然也有过上述综合考量，那么社区团购最有可能从哪几个角度形成自己的赛道呢？
非标品、下沉市场、供应链，社区团购的“免死金牌”
从上表我们不难看出几个特征：
1、近半数社区团购项目为企业内部孵化；
2、孵化社区团购项目的企业基本为B2B或社区店相关业务；
3、除社区团购“中心战场”长沙之外，江浙沪一带也是重点区域；
第一种可能的形式则是作为便利店的拓展业务。正如连锁便利店拓展鲜食类业务一样，在当年社区O2O的浪潮中，曾兴起一波为夫妻老婆店增加生鲜类sku的风潮，这种模式以店为仓，由平台为小店供货，消费者下单后由平台或店主进行配送，但最终败在履约成本过高。
而在社区团购的场景下，有预售制和到店自提的情况下消费流程倒置，店主无需负担履约成本。团购业务作为已有业务体系的新增量，在给店主带来额外收入的同时，还可吸引客流到店形成二次消费。
便利店附加模式相较宝妈拼团的更大优点在于，对于平台而言，无论是否有供应链体系，每增加一个拼团点位都要建设一条新链路，而便利店本身需要日常的供货渠道，如果能将便利店纳入平台供应链体系内，将日常供货和团购运输合二为一，那么供应链路的复用将节省大量成本。相对于个体，便利店的存储条件也更为适宜，对于主打生鲜的社区团购而言，品质有更多保障。
从品类来说，对于社区团购来说，没有什么比非标品更合适了。长久以来大众消费品已经形成了稳定且高效的产业链条，无论从渠道还是从集群效应抑或先发优势，社区团购相较其他业态并无胜算。
关于生鲜品类和社区团购的互补性，我们上文有陈述所以不再重复，除了蔬菜水果，鲜奶、半成品净菜、面包蛋糕等短保商品也是非常适合社区团购的品类。
最广阔的想象空间则是在下沉市场。生鲜传奇董事长王卫曾表示，未来中国新零售一定是围绕社区的综合产业集群，生鲜则是其中最为高频和刚需的部分。
正如本次社区团购最火热的区域在长沙而不是北上广深，受城市规划和居民生活方式的影响，二三线城市居民兼具家庭场景下的消费能力和消费意愿，随着城市化整治，菜市场、小地摊等传统渠道逐渐萎缩，取而代之的是社区型生鲜专门店和大型商超，然而供给远远不足需求水平。在生鲜电商网络可触达度和生鲜供应链改造程度不及一线城市的情况下，下沉市场对于社区团购这种性价比高又兼具一定便利性的形式具有强需求。
不论社区团购或是其他，商业的本质是追求效益最大化，作为商家必将追求成本的降低和单价的提升，商业模式从分散化到集约化的转变。当下，社区团购商家也在跑马圈地的同时更加注重供应链建设。无论基于便利店群体还是宝妈等个体，社区拼购的未来都需要店/仓形式的前置布点。
《零售老板内参》（微信ID：lslb168）认为，未来社区团购必将是集约化的供应链之战，在二三四线广阔的下沉市场，社区场景下并不会一家独大，谁能将规模化效应做到极致，就会有更多机会收割优质市场。
文 | 孙园 来源： 零售老板内参
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