作者 | 范向东 编辑 | 李清乐
昨天（8月29日），中铁总局、顺丰控股集团两家公司共同组建的中铁顺丰国际快运有限公司在深圳揭牌成立，其中中铁快运占股55%、顺丰占股45%。
中铁总相关负责人表示，中铁顺丰的经营范围主要包括高铁快运、快速货物班列等特色物流服务产品研发销售，以及铁路跨境电商货运平台设计建设等。
凭借重资产和品牌效应，顺丰成为国内快递行业的领头羊。而一直被对手“围剿”的顺丰，这次也找到了新盟友，背后的国字招牌金光灿灿。
秀肌肉，还是要看财报。近日，顺丰和“通达系”快递公司相继发布了2018上半年财报，我们看一看顺丰的肌肉在哪儿。
顺丰新业务“开花”
最新财报显示，2018年上半年，顺丰控股上半年营收达425.04亿元，同比增长 32.16%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为22.34 亿元，同比增长18.59%，经营性现金流净额达22.8亿元，较上年同期增长26.29%。
顺丰确实找到了“快车道”，2017上半年营收分别增速23.28%、23.68%，而到了2018上半年增速高达32.16%。净利润增速也同样耀眼，2017年中报增7.47%，年终报增14.12%，2018年中报增18.59%
增速的主要原因是在主营快递业务维稳的情况下，新业务有较快的增长。
今年上半年，顺丰新业务占比16.2%较去年同期12.3%提升3.9%。其中，重货、冷运、国际业务分别实现营业收入34.51亿、15.28亿和12.21亿，同比增长95.82%、47.71%和40.78%，是拉动营收提速的主要力量。
去年5月，顺丰和UPS宣布在香港成立合资公司，以此平台拓展全球市场。今年3月，顺丰与新邦物流成立合资公司——广东顺心快运有限公司，进一步加快对零担物流市场的扩张。同月，顺丰还与夏晖成立合资公司，拓展原有的冷链物流体系。
显然顺丰通过合资公司的形式，保持顺丰品牌在快递市场地位的同时，延伸边界，除了上面三个领域，顺丰还涉足仓储管理，同城配送等业务，意在打造一个综合性物流平台。
值得一提的是，今年上半年顺丰研发费用为3.97亿，顺丰还在今年3月拿到了国内首张无人机航空运营（试点）许可证，通过SooPAT专利数据搜索引擎检索发现，以顺丰速运名义申请的专利超过四百项，对工程技术的重视，让顺丰能称得上一家科技公司。
国家邮政局的统计数据显示，今年上半年快递与包裹服务品牌集中度指数CR8达到81.5，呈现明显上升趋势，这意味着市场集中度的提升。今年上半年，顺丰完成快递18.58亿单，占上半年国内快递市场份额的8.4%，与2017年内全年相比，市场份额提升了0.8%个百分点。
当然，新业务发展初显成效，但并不代表顺丰后续高枕无忧。快递行业是劳动密集型产业，截止报告期末，顺丰拥有各种用工模式收派员约 26.88 万人，要承受相当大的人力成本压力。
通达系“半壁江山”
接下来，我们将视角转向快递的另一派系——“通达系”，今年6月通达系快递退出丰巢股份，集体投奔菜鸟，由此双方阵营分立明显，未来两大阵营的恩怨情仇也将有更多篇幅的故事。
2018年上半年，中通营收77.4亿元，净利润20.5亿元，且依旧占据着在“通达系”业务量的首位。过去半年，期快递业务量达37.15亿票，市场份额自去年同期的15.5% 提升到了16.8%；
申通快递今年上半年营收66.4亿元，较 2017 年同期增长 19.43%，净利润8.3亿元，同比增长17.22%，上半年完成业务量20.45亿件，包裹完成量占全国总量的 9.3%，较2017年下降0.5%；
再看圆通，今年上半年营收120.7亿元，同期增长46.95%，净利润7.7亿元，同比增长20.26，上半年完成28.14亿件，占全国快递服务企业业务量的12.6%，较2017年年度提升1%；
最后，看下韵达，今年上半年营收59亿元，同比增长36.95%，净利润9.3亿元，同比增长30.15%，同时韵达是“通达系”业务量增速最猛的一个，上半年快递服务业务量29.95亿件，同比增长52.26%，增速高出行业平均增速90%，市场份额达13.6%，较去年同期提高1.8%。
综合“三通一达”半年报所披露的数据，今年1至6月份，四家快递企业实现营业收入合计为323.53亿元，同比增长36.70%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润合计为47.17亿元，同比增长38.41%。
而2018年1~6月份全国快递业务收入累计完成2745亿元，而四家快递公司营收合计仅占11.8%。这个占比有些出人意料，主要是因为“通达系”的加盟模式，一票快递，计入“通达系”的营收主要是面单费，中转费和派送费，并且各家因业务模式的差异，统计口径也略有不同。
要是单看营收，顺丰425亿元比“通达系”加起来324亿元还要多100亿，不过这种比较不合逻辑，若按营收规模，京东能比腾讯、阿里还高。更有说服力的是消费者用脚投出的市场份额。
2018年1~6月份全国快递服务企业业务量累计完成220.8亿票，通达系四家共完成了115.69亿票，总市场份额达52.4%，这是“通达系”的特点，电商件多，市场份额大。而2017年全年，“通达系”的市场份额为49.7%，可见快递市场的行业马太效应愈加明显。
不过跟“通达系”相比，顺丰的市场份额是最低的，中通甚至是顺丰的两倍，在某种意义上，探讨“通达系”与顺丰的份额不太合理，因为两者的重心在相对割裂的市场上。不可否认，顺丰已经具备了在商务件市场的定价权，而各大奢侈品的自营网站，也往往会标明顺丰提供快递服务。
至于通达系，仍在价格战中难以脱身。
通达系赚钱“顺丰化”
从五家快递公司的市场份额看，只有申通拖了后腿，上半年市场份额减少0.5%，在这背后，成本的上升可能是申通掉队的原因之一。
今年上半年电子面单迅速推广，按道理电子面单会减少单票快递的成本，与同期相比，中通、圆通、韵达的单票营收、成本都呈同步下降的状态，但申通的却是不降反升。
申通财报显示，其面单的收入、成本均呈下降状态，但申通增加了单票派送的钱，而这背后，则可能是申通已经难以控制成本。
早在去年5月，就有媒体曝出快递公司集体涨价，派费上调0.15元/票，并在6月正式实行，而去年双十一前中通、圆通、韵达也曾发布公告要上调快递价格。但观察中通等的营收、成本变化，其每票毛利反而呈下滑趋势。
而原因涨价涨的是加盟商的费用，“通达系”的收入并没有涨，在于加盟模式下，“通达系”想赚钱，关键在于“节流”。
快递单票营收的下跌，主要是由于单票成本的降低，电子面单省去了部分成本。此外，想要控制成本，基础设施的投入是关键，例如中通在直营中心数量、自有卡车数量、自动分拣机数量等方面有优势，因此能够在成本控制方面领先于同行。如此提升赚钱能力，在方向上，有点向顺丰看齐的味道。
另一方面，快递服务质量可以提高，但快递收费价格上涨，钱却不能落到“通达系”自己的口袋。
上半年，农村地区和农产品网络零售成为亮点。全国农村网络零售额达到6322.8亿元人民币，同比增长34.4%，占全国网上零售额的比重为15.5%，增速高于全国水平4.3个百分点。
这在一定程度上也反映了社交电商平台在拼团、低价及社交流量的支持下不断往三四线城市进行渗透，依然存在大量未被满足的需求。而这，也给快递公司注入更多的业务来源，促进整个快递行业的持续增长。
但同样，这一拨电商增长对消费的价格更加敏感，对于一些“薄利多销”的电商卖家而言，快递贵一毛钱，可能就从大赚变成赔本，因此快递公司涨价，是一件风险很高的事情。
成本控制出现问题，对申通而言显然不是好现象，下半年会迎来电商销售旺季，但申通则可能在更激烈的竞争中失去更多的市场份额，而中小快递公司也愈加难以存活。
“通达系”加劲，抱紧菜鸟
顺丰布局新业务的同时，“通达系”也不能掉队啊。目前申通涉足国际业务、冷链业务、仓储产品；韵达涉足快运、仓配一体化供应链、国际业务、末端业务；圆通主要打造电商大件、零担、整车产品与城市配送服务；中通也差不多，有仓储、快运等业务。
“通达系”和顺丰未来的竞争，范围将从围绕着快递业的局部战争，演变为大物流、产业链上下游、乃至商业模式的全方位竞争。从这个视角，顺丰扩展新业务，是在业务和战略上的先行卡位。
“通达系”则出现了“内部掉队”的现象，很大原因是“通达系”是依赖电商件发展壮大，其业务有对电商件订单的依赖很大，在中报中，“通达系”也强调了新电商、农村电商对给其业务带来的提升，并有推出更专业化的电商产品。
现阶段阿里的重心在电商、零售上，自然需要这方面的物流资源协同。在菜鸟主办的2018全球智慧物流峰会上，马云在演讲中着重强调了快递包裹的重要性，对阿里而言，电商是其主营业务，自然透露出对快递的看重。
跟阿里的协同，也没什么不好，而且菜鸟也确实推进了通达系的服务质量提升，此外，通达系缺失顺丰的科技感。上半年顺丰研发投入近4亿，但通达系要么没有披露，要么只有千万级别，这块，则更多要靠菜鸟的资源。
反过来，阿里也在加强对通达系的控制，此前阿里系持有圆通约17%股份，今年5月又投资持有中通约10%股份。同月，“通达系”也纷纷增持菜鸟子公司浙江驿站，显然双方已经已形成比较密切的利益共同体。
但是，顺丰靠时效性做高了快递业务的护城河，持续造血扶持新业务，而“通达系”的快递业务则面临竞争，为了提升服务质量并与阿里协同，“通达系”资金可能会被优先用于自营化，即便有心多元化，或也无力投入较多资源给新业务。
顺丰和“通达系”的差距，看起来拉大越大呀。
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