一、国内信用卡市场现状如何？
（一）国内信用卡现状：人均持卡率逐年上升
中国银行卡渗透率逐年提高，2018年第三季度渗透率为48.99%，中国银行卡消费总量累计超过了24.05万亿元。
对于信用卡来说，国内持有信用卡的人数显上升趋势，但是持有率仍然较低。2018年底，中国人民银行发布的2018年三季度支付体系报告（下文简称“央行2018Q3支付报告”）显示，中国人均持有银行卡5.31张，其中人均持有信用卡0.47张。人均持有信用卡数量的增长速度在2017Q1-2018Q2高于银行卡后，在2018Q3出现了回落。
（二）集中代收代付通道断开：通道成本上升
信用卡市场平淡，而通道手续费却显上升趋势。在2017年以前，信用卡一般走集中代扣通道，如部分地区央行分支行的通道。但是中国人民银行办公厅于2017年5月《关于加强小额支付系统集中代收付业务管理有关事项的通知》（下文简称“110号文”）要求断开集中代收代付通道由于相关政策的出台，信用卡市场受到影响，通道手续费上升，最终反映到了手续费上。
二、信用卡费率调整对大中小机构影响几何？
在开通支付业务时，用户需要绑定至少一张储蓄卡或者信用卡。之前，支付机构，特别是大型支付机构选择银行签订协议直连，可以享受规模效益带来的较低通道费用。但随着110号文、“断直连”、备付金集中存管等政策相继施行，大部分支付机构信用卡的通道成本增加。
（一）通道成本上升，微信、支付宝信用卡还款开始收取手续费
1、BATJ中，2018年微信支付交易笔数最多
2017年12月开始，微信对信用卡还款用户收取手续费（见表2）；2019年，支付宝对信用卡还款金额超过2000元的用户征收0.1%的手续费。
微信支付率先征收手续费或与庞大的交易笔数有关。通过BATJ2018年年度非银支付机构投诉及处理披露的数据来看，微信支付的支付交易笔数总计4664.75亿笔，高于支付宝、度小满、京东钱包的1975亿笔、2.75亿笔、16.16亿笔（见表3）。微信2018支付笔数为支付宝、度小满、京东的2.36倍、1696.27倍、288.66倍，如微信所说的“每一笔还款背后都会产生支付通道手续费”，在信用卡还款业务占比相近的前提下，微信产生的通道手续费是相当惊人的。
（二）根据特定的条件测算，BATJ中，微信信用卡通道成本最高
因为微信支付笔数远远多于其余三家，随之而来的是巨额的通道手续费。微信最先分段收费收费，不到一年开始完全收费，从一定程度上反映通道成本增长很快。微信不再免费后，信用卡还款的用户或转移到别的机构。此时，支付宝或为承受成本压力最大的公司。
为了方便理解，笔者用数据做一个简单的费率测算。根据央行2018Q3支付报告，非银行支付机构处理网络支付业务1395.43亿笔，金额52.01万亿元；银行业金融机构共处理电子支付业务452.36亿笔，金额592.43万亿元。根据计算，非银支付每笔平均金额372.72元，银行业金融机构单笔平均金额13096.43元。
因为支付宝和微信给出的信用卡手续费率为0.1%，所以笔者假设BATJ2018年支付方式中信用卡占比为100%，成本费率分别为0.09%、0.1%、0.11%，每笔支付金额为372.72元（见表4）。当通道成本费率为0.09%时，收到的手续费大于成本，支付机构从中可以获得收入。当通道成本费率与手续费率相等时，支付机构收入覆盖成本。截至3月9日，微信是唯一一家收费的机构。根据上述假设条件测算，微信信用卡还款手续费收入1738.65亿元，如果成本费率为0.09%，财付通可以获得173.86亿元的差价。支付宝、度小满、京东在2018年没有对信用卡还款收取费用，假设支付通道成本费率为0.09%，那么上述三家公司需要对该项业务分别补贴662.51亿元、0.92亿元以及5.42亿元。
BATJ的支付业务中，微信和支付宝支付业务频繁，成本压力大。微信收费中、支付宝即将收费，或与交易笔数、金额日渐庞大有关。度小满支付和京东钱包的压力相对较小。
由于国内持有信用卡的人数占比不高，京东和度小满信用卡还款产生的成本相对有限。根据央行Q3支付报告，人均持有信用卡占银行卡数的8.85%，笔者对信用卡支付占比设定为5%、10%。以微信为例，如果通道费率为0.09%，信用卡占比为5%、10%，微信可以通过手续费获得8.69亿、17.39亿元；如果通道费率为0.11%，信用卡占比为5%、10%，微信需要进行补贴。
（三）中小型支付机构、银行受通道成本影响相对较小
支付宝、微信这类大型机构通过与每家银行谈判，打通通道直连银行。现在网联将通道共享，使大型第三方支付公司失去了原来的优势。根据网联清算有限公司发布的《关于非银行支付机构网络支付清算平台渠道接入工作情况通告的函》（下文简称“049号文”），要求支付机构的网络支付业务自2018年6月30日起，全部通过网联平台处理。
接入网联对中小型机构有三点好处：
1、连接多家银行。中小支付机构因为考虑投入后的回报率，不可能像大型机构去铺设通道。机构接通网联之后，就连接了至少400家银行；
2、重新统一的起跑线。直连时，大型机构有与银行议价的能力，可以享受到比中小机构更便宜的费率。“断直连”后，无论机构规模大小，相应的通道的费率是一样的；
3、受通道成本影响小。由于通道成本的增加，大型打支付机构交易笔数越多、金额越大，产生的成本越高。现在大型机构对信用卡还款开始征收手续费，中小机构可以通过免费吸引用户。
之前，支付机构一般与大型银行直连。中小银行存在与中小支付机构类似的原因。接通网联，中小型银行明显获益更多。
三、信用卡还款收费后互联网信用支付产品会替代信用卡吗？
随着国内用户的提前消费的习惯养成，用户除了选择信用卡，还会在线上借款，以花呗为例：
2016年后，花呗等的出现蚕食了信用卡的部分市场。但想要完全取代信用卡，花呗等互联网信用支付产品可能力有不逮。
信用卡可以在国内外绝大部分地区使用，而花呗就比较受限。在国外，信用卡可以支取现金，而花呗暂不可以。
信用卡可借金额高于微信、支付宝。信用卡一般借款金额下限为1万元，额度会根据持卡人的还款、消费情况上调。花呗借款金额最低为500元,额度可自行设置（注：金额只能做加法，不能做减法）。
信用卡还款期比较长，一般在账单日之后的18至25天还款，其免息还款期限20-50天。而花呗在每月9日需要偿还上一个月的账单，账期较短。
信用卡持卡人积分可以根据积分兑换奖品。花呗的奖励机制反映在支付宝打分体系上，如芝麻信用、支付宝积分等；且支付宝对花呗支付进行补贴。
对价格不太敏感的用户，大多不会改变原有的信用卡还款方式。其余的用户可以选择对应的银行APP、手续费免费的支付机构进行还款。
四、结论
随着国内借贷需求的兴起，信用卡人均持卡数量也在逐步增长。之前，第三方支付机构与银行直连，尤其是大型支付机构通过与直连银行议价，支付通道成本较低；“断直连”后，大型支付机构通道优势不再，中小支付机构、银行可以享受网联带来的通道的福利。
但对于用户而言，花呗等互联网信用支付产品和信用卡在使用场景、还款周期等方面有所不同。除部分对价格敏感的客户之外，其余客户未必会选择使用这些产品代替信用卡的使用。
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