11月16日，在清华大学经济管理学院与阿里巴巴集团联合举办的“2018看中国：新产业论坛”上，毕马威合伙人毛健发布了《智周万物 枝叶扶疏——2018中国零售服务业白皮书》。
毕马威估测，中国零售服务业规模在2003年整体规模为6000亿元，2017年则增长至近6万亿。这6万亿中，营销服务占到1.6万亿，交易服务1.5万亿，物流服务1.3万亿，运营服务1万亿，技术服务0.4万亿，支付服务0.2万亿。
零售服务是指零售服务商在零售各个环节为零售链条提供的促进商品流通的增值性服务。
零售服务包括营销、交易、支付、物流、技术赋能和运营支持。交易板块曾经是零售的中枢，而随着渠道融合，交易板块的重要性逐步减弱，营销板块的地位逐步提升。作为营销的重点，流量的重要性也随之凸显，而内容和注意力经济是未来获取流量的关键。
随着移动时代来临，线上线下的边界弱化，零售服务的边界也随之减弱。比如第三方支付最初为线上网商服务，现在也开始为实体店铺提供支付便利，快递物流原来只为线上网商做最后一公里配送，现在也开始为超市等提供即时配送服务。
在保持多年高速发展之后，中国互联网时代的人口红利已被渐渐消化，线上用户规模增长减缓。同时，各类企业纷纷加入线上流量的争夺，迫使线上流量成本抬升。因此，线上线下获客成本趋同，引流渠道趋向多样化。随着线上流量红利减弱，线上企业也开始积极向线下渗透以挖掘流量入口。
当今的零售服务领域，跨界布局和竞争也成为常态。原来专注在某一个赛道发家的，发展起来后一定会向其他赛道渗透。原本清晰的电商、社交、娱乐、物流的行业界限，也正在瓦解。
比如，短视频平台原本只做营销服务，为交易平台提供流量，但是这种情况正在改变。平均每日播放量超过10亿的抖音，就在试水内容电商，不仅关联电商平台的卖货链接后，还上线了自有店铺，提供营销和交易双重服务。
根据对零售服务行业的分析，毕马威认为行业呈现三大趋势。
第一个趋势，技术驱动行业变革，服务版图不断扩张。以前驱动的技术更多是工具技术，没有指数增长效应，而现在是算法技术。
第二个趋势，商业模式迭代加速，独角兽成长周期短。像华润万家达到一千亿交易额花了29年，拼多多只用了两年。未来，零售服务业的代际更迭，以及新模式催生的行业新贵，将更加频繁地出现。
第三个趋势，跨国零售趋势明显，服务国际化进程加快。大量的国内零售商到国外，大量的国外零售商进入国内。比如跨国服务商也开始做线上，2018年中国跨境电商交易规模将达到8.8万亿元。
未来，零售服务体系深度变革，将进一步提升零售的效率，深层次挖掘终端消费者的消费潜力。通过重构零售价值链，零售服务也会带动全社会资源的合理流动和分配。
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